Following the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” markets finally have clarity with regard to tax
policy for the foreseeable future. Company management teams, many of whom have delayed capital
deployment decisions, are now able to prepare business plans with more certainty surrounding favorable
tax conditions. The next major item of clarity needed is on tariff policies, which continue to evolve on a
daily basis.
Deregulation and Liquidity
The recent shift toward deregulation is expected to unlock additional economic activity as management
teams will be able to operate without previous regulations. Bank deregulation should also increase
money flows and liquidity both on Main Street and Wall Street.
Infrastructure and Liquidity
Expanding infrastructure initiatives, supported by deregulation and the new tax framework, are creating
opportunities across multiple sectors. Companies providing materials, tools, and services to these
projects may benefit as capital expenditure levels remain robust in this phase of global economic
expansion.
Productivity and Innovation
Productivity growth from the deployment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has yet to be realized in the
economy, but it should be a significant tailwind to drive efficiency and optimization throughout the world.
Investors would be keen to avoid investments that have terminal values that are structurally impaired
from the competitive threats that AI could generate. The benefits of AI will create buckets of winners
and losers in this technological revolution, and it is critical to have defensive moats to protect margins
and market share as this plays out over the coming years.
Mergers and Acquisitions
M&A activity has increased compared to the previous several years and has outperformed initial
reactions from FTC statements earlier in 2025. M&A activity is positive for equities, as it allows
combinations that optimize operations and cost structures. Small cap companies should participate in
M&A, as many companies need to join larger organizations with lower cost of capital structures and
broader platforms to unlock value.
Interest Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve has a challenging job of calibrating rates to the underlying economic activity, which
has historically depended upon past data as opposed to future expectations. Equity markets are more
focused on future activity, and this creates a very interesting opportunity for longer-term investors that
understand the economic power of lower tax certainty, deregulation, M&A, and lower short-term interest
rates. The old saying of “Don’t fight the Fed” is one we respect as investors.
We expect lower short-term interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months, but
the timing of the next rate cut is questionable. There are trillions of dollars in money market accounts thatcould be deployed into the equity markets as rate cuts become more certain. Large cap stocks continue tolead the markets over small caps, but we believe that the market breath should improve as funds moveout of the money markets and into higher risk assets.
Key Considerations
As market dynamics shift, asset allocators may revisit their positioning between large and small-capequities. Are you prepared for potential changes in asset allocation when these conditions converge?