MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation has improved, but the headwinds of elevated costs in housing, food, and labor remain. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve will end rate increases in the coming months, which should allow the economy to digest the impact of higher interest rates. Global economic growth should continue to slow as the impact of […]

MARKET REVIEW In 2Q23, the S&P 500 returned 8.74%, the S&P MidCap 400 returned 4.85%, and the Russell 2000 returned 5.21%. On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps to 5.00% – 5.25% and then paused in June. Fed consensus calls for two more rate hikes in 2023.1 MACRO OBSERVATIONS Economic […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation continues to improve from extremely high levels and we expect the Federal Reserve to end rate increases in the coming months. Global economic growth should continue to slow, and the inversion of the interest rate yield curve indicates a higher probability of a global recession. Energy, housing, food, and labor costs remain […]

MARKET REVIEW In 1Q23, the Russell 2000 returned 2.74% and the S&P 500 returned 7.50%. Despite the worry, the markets have been positive over the last nine months. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50% – 4.75% on February 1. General consensus of the Fed predicts another 25 bps […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation expectations have improved significantly, which encourages the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of future interest rate hikes. While energy, food, and labor costs remain a significant headwind to lower inflation, we expect this interest rate rising cycle to end in early 2023. Global economic growth should continue to slow, and the […]

MARKET REVIEW Despite the market’s terrible angst and performance in 2022, the major indices were all higher in the second half of 2022. In Q4, the S&P 500 returned 7.56% and the Russell 2000 Growth returned 4.13%. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps to 3.75 – 4.00% on November 2nd […]

MARKET REVIEW In 3Q22, the S&P 500 returned -4.88%, the S&P 400 Index returned –2.46%, and the Russell 2000 Index returned –2.19%. In July, when investors believed the Federal Reserve might end its rate-raising cycle, the Russell 2000 returned 10.50% and the S&P 500 returned 9.22%. In late July, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation remains stubbornly high, which encourages the Federal Reserve to set higher interest rates that impact risk assets. Global economic growth is slowing, and the inversion of the interest rate yield curve indicates a higher probability of a global recession. Dollar strength is weighing on U.S. equity markets, which will impact the corporate […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Historic global inflation continued to dominate the headlines in 2Q22. Year-over-year inflation in June 2022 was 9.1%, the highest level in 41 years. The inflation we are experiencing is due to a variety of reasons including supply constraints, component shortages, government regulations, environmental policies, energy supplies, food production costs, and transportation and logistical […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Wage pressure, logistical transportation, higher commodity prices, and supply chain constraints continued to hamper earnings and forward guidance for many companies. The pandemic and geopolitical conflicts continue to exacerbate global supply issues. We still expect to see some of these risks and pressures begin to alleviate, however the recovery has been delayed beyond […]