MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation has significantly improved, but the headwinds of elevated costs in housing, food, and labor remain. We believe the Federal Reserve is finished raising rates and will begin to cut rates in summer 2024. The next few quarters should allow the economy to continue digesting the impact of higher interest rates. Global economic […]

MARKET REVIEW & MACRO OBSERVATIONS In 4Q23, the S&P MidCap 400 returned 11.67%, the Russell 2000 returned 14.03%, and the S&P 500 returned 11.69%. In September, the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of one more rate increase in 20231, and the markets were weak in October. Markets rallied after the November Fed meeting when rates […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation has improved, but the challenges of elevated costs in housing, food, and labor remain. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve may raise rates one more time, although the long end of the yield curve has risen substantially. The next few quarters should allow the economy to digest the impact of higher interest […]

MARKET REVIEW In 3Q23, the S&P 500 Index lost 3.27%, the S&P MidCap 400 lost 4.20%, and the Russell 2000 lost 5.13%. In July, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 25 bps to 5.25% – 5.50% and then paused in September. The Fed indicates that there could be one more rate increase in 2023.1 10-year […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation has improved, but the headwinds of elevated costs in housing, food, and labor remain. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve will end rate increases in the coming months, which should allow the economy to digest the impact of higher interest rates. Global economic growth should continue to slow as the impact of […]

MARKET REVIEW In 2Q23, the S&P 500 returned 8.74%, the S&P MidCap 400 returned 4.85%, and the Russell 2000 returned 5.21%. On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps to 5.00% – 5.25% and then paused in June. Fed consensus calls for two more rate hikes in 2023.1 MACRO OBSERVATIONS Economic […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation continues to improve from extremely high levels and we expect the Federal Reserve to end rate increases in the coming months. Global economic growth should continue to slow, and the inversion of the interest rate yield curve indicates a higher probability of a global recession. Energy, housing, food, and labor costs remain […]

MARKET REVIEW In 1Q23, the Russell 2000 returned 2.74% and the S&P 500 returned 7.50%. Despite the worry, the markets have been positive over the last nine months. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50% – 4.75% on February 1. General consensus of the Fed predicts another 25 bps […]

MACRO OBSERVATIONS Inflation expectations have improved significantly, which encourages the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of future interest rate hikes. While energy, food, and labor costs remain a significant headwind to lower inflation, we expect this interest rate rising cycle to end in early 2023. Global economic growth should continue to slow, and the […]

MARKET REVIEW Despite the market’s terrible angst and performance in 2022, the major indices were all higher in the second half of 2022. In Q4, the S&P 500 returned 7.56% and the Russell 2000 Growth returned 4.13%. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps to 3.75 – 4.00% on November 2nd […]