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Needham Small Cap Growth Fund – 1Q24 Commentary

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MACRO OBSERVATIONS

  • Inflation has significantly improved, but the headwinds of elevated costs in housing, food, and labor remain a challenge. We anticipate the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates and will begin to cut rates later in the year.
  • The next few quarters should allow the economy to continue to digest the impact of higher interest rates. Global economic growth should continue to slow as the impact of the higher cost of capital filters throughout the economy. We do not expect a significant recession.
  • Corporate layoffs continue as management teams prepare for the possibility of a weaker economy and slower business opportunities. A higher unemployment landscape would benefit the argument for rate cuts later in 2024.
  • Companies continue to adjust inventory levels to meet end-markets’ lower demand and higher cost of capital to retain inventory levels. We expect inventory levels to stabilize over the first half of 2024, leading to a more balanced supply and demand relationship later in 2024 and into 2025.
  • Unfortunately, geopolitical risks escalated, and we expect these risks to persist for an extended period. The U.S. political environment will also add volatility and uncertainty as investors begin gauging election outcomes in November.

 

IMPACTS ON PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

  • The Fund’s Institutional (NESIX) and Retail classes (NESGX) returned 3.63% and 3.48% in the fourth quarter compared to the Russell 2000 Growth’s 7.58% and the Russell 2000’s 5.18%.
  • The Fund started the quarter under pressure; however, by mid-quarter, and into quarter-end, the appetite for small-cap stocks rallied substantially. We deployed the majority of our cash position on the market pullback and ended the quarter with a 3.9% cash position.
  • Finally, we believe there is significant value within the asset class after years of selling pressure and investor avoidance. We look forward to the second half of 2024 as management teams continue to focus on improving cost structures and margins, accelerating revenue, and strengthening balance sheets.
  • The Fund’s top five performers in 1Q24 were: AXT, Inc. (AXTI), Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN), MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI), Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) and Infinera Corp. (INFN).
  • The Fund’s top five detractors on 1Q24 were: ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN), Cambium Networks Corp. (CMBM), BigCommerce Holdings, Inc (BIGC), MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) and Vicor Corp. (VICR).

OUTLOOK

  • Higher interest rates and inflation will continue to impact economic activity as companies focus on their balance sheets and accumulate cash. Investments in innovation will be delayed and impact the recovery of supply chains. Higher interest rates may cause further stress within the economy as real interest rates increase and inflation decreases.
  • Capital markets will remain challenged, and companies needing to raise funds are finding the cost of capital is substantially higher than in past years. We expect capital markets to show signs of recovery in 2024 as the expectation of lower Fed Funds rates is more visible.
  • Technology remains a long-term strength of the economy, and several major secular trends persist firmly in place to support continued growth. Areas of long-term investment that we continue to like are mobile electrification, communications infrastructure, defense, AI, cloud computing, wireless connectivity, software and security, and specialty material manufacturers. Innovation within our portfolio companies continues and long term, we believe these investments will benefit the Fund.
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The information presented in this commentary is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or other investments. This message is not an offer of the Needham Growth Fund, the Needham Aggressive Growth Fund or the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund (each a "Fund" and collectively, the "Funds"). Shares are sold only through the currently effective prospectus, which must precede or accompany this report. Please read the prospectus or summary prospectus and carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Funds before you invest. To obtain a copy of the Fund's current prospectus, please visit www.needhamfunds.com or contact the Fund's transfer agent, U.S. Bancorp Fund Services, LLC at 1-800-625-7071.

All three of the Needham Funds have substantial exposure to small and micro capitalized companies. Funds holding smaller capitalized companies are subject to greater price fluctuation than those of larger companies. Needham Small Cap Growth Fund's ownership as a percentage of net assets in the stated securities as of March 31, 2024: AXTI: 3.05%, ASPN: 12.64%, MKSI: 4.82%, PSTG: 1.88%, INFN: 2.55%, ADTN: 2.30%, CMBM: 1.84%, BIGC: 1.66%, MXL: 2.68% and VICR: 4.27%.

The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) was developed by and/or is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by U.S. Bancorp FundServices, LLC. The S&P 500 Index is a broad unmanaged measure of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index is a broad unmanaged index composed of the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 Growth Index includes those Russell 2000 Index companies with higher price-to-value ratios and higher forecasted growth values. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Needham & Company, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Needham Group, Inc. Needham & Company, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, is the distributor of The Needham Funds, Inc.

The source of the data for each of the Russell 2000 Index and the Russell 3000 Index (together, the “Indexes”) is the London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2023. All rights in the Indexes vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the Index. The Indexes are calculated by or on behalf of FTSE International Limited or its affiliate, agent or partner. Neither the LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Indexes; no party may rely on the Index returns shown; and the LSE Group makes no claim, prediction, warranty or representation about the Fund or the suitability of the Indexes with respect to the Fund. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group is not connected to the Fund and does not promote, sponsor or endorse the Fund or the content of this prospectus.